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Michael Mayer

Michael Mayer Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears

Michael Mayer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+690/-1600).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -770 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1600.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Raiders to pass on 60.0% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.

The Raiders rank as the 5th-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 65.3% red zone pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 133.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Michael Mayer's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 65.1% to 100.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

Michael Mayer's 10.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 16.6.

Michael Mayer grades out in the 1st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.

The Bears defense has yielded the 5th-fewest receiving touchdowns in football to TEs: 0.25 per game since the start of last season.

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