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Michael Mayer

Michael Mayer Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Michael Mayer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-385).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +305 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +300.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Raiders are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 60.4% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 60.5% red zone pass rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • While Michael Mayer has garnered 11.8% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Las Vegas's pass game near the goal line this week at 24.2%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are anticipated by the projections to run just 62.3 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • With a lackluster 68.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (16th percentile) this year, Michael Mayer has been as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs.
  • This year, the fierce New York Giants defense has yielded a feeble 0.33 passing touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends: the 6th-lowest rate in the league.

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