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Michael Mayer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+950/-1900).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1800 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1900.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Raiders may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be rolling out backup QB Kenny Pickett.At a -12.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are heavy underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.The Raiders have been the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 66.0% red zone pass rate.Michael Mayer's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.1% to 72.1%.When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Philadelphia's group of safeties has been terrible this year, grading out as the worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The projections expect the Raiders to run the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Raiders this year (a mere 53.1 per game on average).Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being projected in this game) generally correlate with lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased run volume.The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.This year, the stout Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded a puny 62.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the lowest rate in the NFL.
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