Michael Gallup Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Patriots defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 9th-least pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.1% pass rate.
Michael Gallup's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 40.8.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.7%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (63.7%).
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's collection of LBs has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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