Michael Gallup Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-188).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Michael Gallup has run a route on 86.1% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.
Michael Gallup has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football, catching a mere 60.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 22nd percentile among wide receivers
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have utilized play action on a lowly 23.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.