Michael Gallup Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3-point underdogs.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (41.1 per game) this year.
Michael Gallup's 4.45 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a remarkable growth in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 3.0% figure.
This year, the porous Eagles defense has yielded a monstrous 188.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.
Michael Gallup has been less involved as a potential target this year (74.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (86.0%).
Michael Gallup has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (55.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Michael Gallup has been one of the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing just 54.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 6th percentile among wide receivers
Michael Gallup is positioned as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a measly 6.47 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 21st percentile among wideouts