Michael Gallup Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offensive scheme to skew 3.2% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (40.8 per game) this year.
Michael Gallup's 66.3% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a a noteable gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 54.2% rate.
Michael Gallup's pass-game effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, totaling 8.80 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.49 mark last year.
Michael Gallup's ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten a boost this season, notching 5.67 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 3.03 rate last season.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Michael Gallup has put up quite a few less air yards this year (47.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).

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