Michael Gallup Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme to tilt 5.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
Michael Gallup's 4.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year represents a meaningful gain in his efficiency in the open field over last year's 3.0% figure.
The New York Giants pass defense has displayed bad efficiency vs. WRs this year, yielding 8.59 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in the NFL.
The Giants pass defense has struggled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in football.

Favors Under

With a 17.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 53.9% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.38 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.
Michael Gallup's 70.1% Route Participation% this season reflects a remarkable reduction in his passing attack usage over last season's 86.0% figure.