Michael Gallup Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+207/-313).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -299 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -313.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Michael Gallup has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Gallup has posted a whopping 81.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among wideouts.
Michael Gallup's 45.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 75th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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