Michael Gallup Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+324/-601).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -571 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -601.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Michael Gallup has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 77th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (56.6%) versus WRs this year (56.6%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.