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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Michael Carter Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+144/-172).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -172.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (57.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
  • Michael Carter has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 7.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • Michael Carter comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs, completing an impressive 100.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the league vs. the Titans defense since the start of last season (73.5% Adjusted Completion%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Cardinals, who are overwhelmingly favored by 7.5 points.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cardinals as the 9th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Among all running backs, Michael Carter ranks in the 84th percentile for red zone carries since the start of last season, taking on 46.7% of the usage in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone.
  • Michael Carter has earned a paltry -1.9% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: a lowly 5th percentile among running backs.

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