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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Michael Carter Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+132/-168).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +136 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +132.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Cardinals are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (64.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Arizona Cardinals.
  • The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per snap.
  • In regards to air yards, Michael Carter grades out in the towering 98th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a striking 7.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • The predictive model expects Michael Carter to be a more integral piece of his team's run game near the goal line in this week's game (40.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.4% in games he has played).
  • In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year.
  • Michael Carter's 78.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a noteworthy drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last season's 100.0% figure.
  • Michael Carter ranks in the 1st percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.

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