Michael Carter Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Michael Carter has been given 42.5% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Michael Carter has rushed for many fewer yards per game (31.0) this year than he did last year (45.0).
Michael Carter's running effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a measly 3.35 yards-per-carry vs a 4.24 mark last year.
Michael Carter has been among the weakest RBs in the NFL at generating extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.41 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 8th percentile.