Michael Carter Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Carter Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-109/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Carter has generated 45.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (75th percentile).
Michael Carter has been among the leading running backs in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 3.37 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 88th percentile.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be much less involved in his team's rushing attack this week (33.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (49.6% in games he has played).