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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Michael Carter Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+294/-516).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +299 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +294.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 69.5 plays per game.

The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

The New York Jets have used some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 7th-least run-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 39.8% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be a less important option in his team's run game near the end zone this week (24.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (45.5% in games he has played).

The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

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