Michael Carter Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Rushing TD

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+142/-196).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +191 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 7th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 46.4% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game near the end zone this week (58.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (39.4% in games he has played).
Michael Carter has rushed for 0.30 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (75th percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the most touchdowns in the NFL (1.64 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.

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