Michael Carter Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Rushing TD

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+263/-437).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +274 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +263.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 10th-most run-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 45.4% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Michael Carter has received 40.6% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Michael Carter has rushed for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (76th percentile).
The New England Patriots defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-least TDs in the league (0.44 per game) versus the New England Patriots defense this year.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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