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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Michael Carter Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 135.3 total plays called: the most out of all the games this week.
  • The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Cardinals this year (a massive 61.3 per game on average).
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume.
  • In this contest, Michael Carter is forecasted by the model to rank in the 87th percentile among running backs with 3.9 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
  • Michael Carter has been used less as a potential target this year (37.5% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (56.6%).
  • The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • Michael Carter's 81.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a meaningful drop-off in his receiving prowess over last season's 100.0% mark.

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