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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Michael Carter Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -175.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 62.2% of their downs: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • At the moment, the 8th-fastest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Arizona Cardinals.
  • The predictive model expects Michael Carter to accrue 3.0 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile among running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Michael Carter has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (31.7% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (56.6%).
  • The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing game metrics across the board.
  • Michael Carter's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 100.0% to 80.2%.
  • The Buccaneers safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

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