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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Michael Carter Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-180).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to earn 3.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among running backs.

Michael Carter has been a big part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 10.4% this year, which puts him in the 85th percentile among RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (75.8%) to running backs this year (75.8%).

The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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