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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Michael Carter Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-109/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Cardinals may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett.
  • This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Cardinals, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • The predictive model expects the Cardinals as the 2nd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The 10th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cardinals this year (a massive 58.5 per game on average).
  • The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to see only 125.7 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • Michael Carter has run fewer routes this year (27.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (56.6%).
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
  • Michael Carter's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 100.0% to 75.8%.
  • Michael Carter checks in as one of the weakest RBs in the NFL at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 4th percentile.

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