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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Michael Carter Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The model projects the Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Michael Carter has been used less as a potential target this year (28.7% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (56.6%).
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
  • Michael Carter's 76.5% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a meaningful decline in his pass-catching ability over last year's 100.0% mark.
  • Michael Carter is positioned as one of the worst running backs in football at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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