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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Carries
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals

Michael Carter Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 39.5% run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Michael Carter has earned 48.6% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.

The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Jets will be starting backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles profile as the 9th-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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