Michael Carter Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Carries

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 39.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Michael Carter has earned 48.6% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The New York Jets will be starting backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles profile as the 9th-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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