Michael Carter Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Michael Carter

NFL · Player Props

Michael Carter

RB · New York Jets

Carries

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Carter Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Michael Carter has been given 42.1% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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