Melvin Gordon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 12:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-355).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.
Melvin Gordon has earned 55.6% of his team's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 10th-most TDs in the league (1.00 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 40.1% red zone run rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best DT corps in football this year with their run defense.
The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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