Melvin Gordon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:35 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+214/-327).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +234 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +214.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Melvin Gordon has received 55.1% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Melvin Gordon has rushed for 0.44 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (89th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 8th-least run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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