Melvin Gordon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+190/-250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +200 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Melvin Gordon has run a route on 42.2% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos O-line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.