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Melvin Gordon
NFL · Player Props
Melvin Gordon
RB · Denver Broncos
Receptions
Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022 Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC
NFL Props Melvin Gordon Receptions

Melvin Gordon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+190/-250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +200 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +190.

Favors Over
  • The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • Melvin Gordon has run a route on 42.2% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
  • The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
  • The Denver Broncos O-line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Favors Under
  • The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
  • The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
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