Melvin Gordon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Melvin Gordon

NFL · Player Props

Melvin Gordon

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Melvin Gordon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-130/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 43.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup QB Brett Rypien in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Melvin Gordon has been a much smaller piece of his team's run game this season (40.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (51.7%).
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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