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Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon Carries
Player Prop Week 7

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets

Melvin Gordon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-130/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 43.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.

The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup QB Brett Rypien in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

Melvin Gordon has been a much smaller piece of his team's run game this season (40.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (51.7%).

The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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