Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Mecole Hardman

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 10, 2024 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.6% pass rate.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the model to call 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Chiefs this year (a whopping 61.0 per game on average).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Mecole Hardman comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL, catching an impressive 92.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 86th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Mecole Hardman has run a route on 17.0% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 11th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
After accumulating 4.0 air yards per game last year, Mecole Hardman has regressed heavily this year, currently averaging -1.0 per game.
The Broncos defense has surrendered the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 136.0) versus wideouts this year.
The Broncos pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 2.96 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.