Mecole Hardman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Mecole Hardman

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Mecole Hardman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Mecole Hardman has been among the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in a stellar 76.1% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Mecole Hardman grades out in the 87th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.43 per game.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (71.5%) vs. WRs this year (71.5%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.