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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Matthew Stafford Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1850/-2500).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2500.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.7% pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • In this week's game, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projection model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.6.
  • Accounting for a lowly 1.2% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year (20th percentile among quarterbacks), Matthew Stafford's lack of speed makes him no threat in the run game near the end zone.
  • With an excellent ratio of 2.42 per game (100th percentile), Matthew Stafford ranks as one of the top TD passers in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Rams being a huge 10.5-point favorite in this game.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.8 per game) this year.
  • The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 7th-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.18 per game this year.
  • Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most touchdowns in football (1.18 per game) versus the Panthers defense this year.
  • The Panthers linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

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