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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Matthew Stafford Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2000/-25000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -14500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -25000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (65.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Rams.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projection model to total the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.2.
  • Matthew Stafford is not a mobile QB and has accounted for a lowly 1.3% of his team's rushing play calls near the goal line this year, putting him in the 20th percentile among QBs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in football vs. the Falcons defense this year (68.1% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles project as the worst unit in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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