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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Matthew Stafford Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1550/-14500).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projection model to total the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.2.
  • Matthew Stafford is not a mobile QB and has accounted for a lowly 1.3% of his team's rushing play calls near the goal line this year, putting him in the 20th percentile among QBs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in football vs. the Falcons defense this year (68.1% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles project as the worst unit in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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