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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Matthew Stafford Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+810/-3200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +840 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +810.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Rams to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • In this game, Matthew Stafford is projected by the projections to wind up with the 3rd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.2.
  • Taking on a measly 1.8% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year (24th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Matthew Stafford's lack of mobility makes him no threat in the run game near the end zone.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 9.5-point advantage, the Rams are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their standard approach.
  • The Rams have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.4 plays per game.
  • The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (68.6% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Arizona Cardinals defense has given up the 10th-fewest TDs through the air in football: 1.33 per game this year.

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