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Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+140).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -147 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -185.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At the present time, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league (62.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Los Angeles Rams.Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are anticipated by the projections to call 69.0 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week.The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The projections expect Matthew Stafford to attempt 37.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.Matthew Stafford has been one of the best touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 1.60 per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 5.5-point advantage, the Rams are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the San Francisco 49ers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.0 per game) this year.The Los Angeles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.Since the start of last season, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded a measly 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 9th-smallest rate in football.This year, the formidable 49ers defense has conceded a paltry 1.25 TDs through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
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