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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-127/+121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +121 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams as the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 129.7 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop-off.

The model projects Matthew Stafford to throw 36.8 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

With an excellent rate of 1.25 per game (75th percentile), Matthew Stafford has been as one of the best TD throwers in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Rams being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Colts safeties project as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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