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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-103/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Rams to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

In this week's game, Matthew Stafford is anticipated by the projection model to total the 10th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.7.

Matthew Stafford's throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 65.2% to 71.7%.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Philadelphia's unit has been awful since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Rams to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats deflated) in light of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this week's contest.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Eagles, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.9 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Rams ranks as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in football vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (66.4% Adjusted Completion%).

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