reorder

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (65.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Rams.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projection model to total the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.2.

With a terrific rate of 2.35 per game (100th percentile), Matthew Stafford has been among the leading TD throwers in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Rams are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in football vs. the Falcons defense this year (68.1% Adjusted Completion%).

More Matthew Stafford Player Props

Matthew Stafford TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17