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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Matthew Stafford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The Rams rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 59.7% red zone pass rate.
  • The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to run the 7th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.
  • In this week's game, Matthew Stafford is projected by the predictive model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.7.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
  • The Rams offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year (67.1% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 7th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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