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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Rams being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 129.7 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.

Since the start of last season, the anemic Indianapolis Colts run defense has been gouged for a monstrous 127.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 9th-most in the NFL.

The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Rams as the 7th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 39.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop-off.

This week, Matthew Stafford is anticipated by the projections to accrue the 4th-fewest carries out of all quarterbacks with 1.8.

Matthew Stafford is not much of a runner and has accounted for just 2.7% of his team's run game usage this year, ranking him in the 5th percentile among quarterbacks.

Matthew Stafford has generated a mere 0.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in football when it comes to quarterbacks (3rd percentile).

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