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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+195/-265).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -265.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Rams are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have run for the most adjusted yards in the NFL (129 per game) versus the Falcons defense this year.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles project as the worst unit in the NFL this year with their run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to run on 37.8% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • In this game, Matthew Stafford is expected by the model to accumulate the 3rd-fewest rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 1.8.
  • Making up just 2.8% of his team's carries this year (5th percentile when it comes to QBs), Matthew Stafford's lack of speed makes him no threat as a ball-carrier.
  • Matthew Stafford has averaged a mere 1.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the smallest figures in the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks (3rd percentile).

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