Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 3-point advantage, the Rams are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
Opposing squads have played at the 10th-quickest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Rams defense this year, averaging 27.01 seconds per play.
Matthew Stafford has run for substantially more yards per game (8.0) this year than he did last year (2.0).
This year, the anemic Steelers run defense has given up a whopping 143.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Rams to be the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 38.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This week, Matthew Stafford is projected by the model to earn the 4th-fewest carries out of all QBs with 2.2.
With a terrible tally of 0.36 yards-after-contact (6th percentile), Matthew Stafford stands as one of the bottom running QBs in football this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers rank as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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