Matthew Stafford Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Matthew Stafford

NFL · Player Props

Matthew Stafford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Completions

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 30, 2025 1:17 AM EST

Analysis

Matthew Stafford Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (65.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Rams.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projection model to total the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.2.
The Atlanta cornerbacks rank as the worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Rams are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in football vs. the Falcons defense this year (68.1% Adjusted Completion%).

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