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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford Completions
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Matthew Stafford Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-122/-106).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projection model to total the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.0.
  • The Atlanta cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Rams profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in football vs. the Falcons defense this year (68.1% Adjusted Completion%).

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