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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford Carries
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats deflated) in light of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this week's contest.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Rams to run on 38.3% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The projections expect the Rams to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect Matthew Stafford to total 1.7 carries in this game, on balance: the 7th-fewest among all QBs.

Comprising a mere 4.8% of his team's carries this year (23rd percentile when it comes to QBs), Matthew Stafford's one-dimensionality makes him no threat as a ball-carrier.

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