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Matthew Golden

Matthew Golden Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Matthew Golden Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+580/-700).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -750 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -700.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in football vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year (73.9% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Chicago Bears defense has been torched for the 3rd-most TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 1.29 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 51.1% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most run-centric offense in the league in these cases has been the Packers.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Packers are projected by the model to run just 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • The Chicago defensive tackles project as the 4th-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

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