Matt Ryan TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Matt Ryan

NFL · Player Props

Matt Ryan

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 7, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Matt Ryan TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+141/-176).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -176.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.2 plays per game.
Matt Ryan has attempted 40.0 throws per game this year, grading out in the 76th percentile among QBs.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.33 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the NFL vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season (65.2%).
The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 2nd-least TDs through the air in the league: 0.75 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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