Matt Breida Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Matt Breida

NFL · Player Props

Matt Breida

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 22, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Matt Breida Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Matt Breida to accrue 2.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Matt Breida has posted a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Matt Breida has run a route on 19.9% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 24th percentile among running backs.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (74.9%) to running backs since the start of last season (74.9%).

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