Matt Breida Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Matt Breida

NFL · Player Props

Matt Breida

RB · New York Giants

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 8:02 PM EST

Analysis

Matt Breida Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New York Giants offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
The model projects Matt Breida to accrue 13.7 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The leading projections forecast Matt Breida to be a much smaller part of his team's run game in this game (14.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (24.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Giants are a huge 13-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the New York Giants as the 6th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Giants offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 5th-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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