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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Marvin Mims Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+510/-630).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -600 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -630.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (60.0% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Denver Broncos.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see 135.1 plays on offense called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Marvin Mims Jr. has put up far more air yards this season (52.0 per game) than he did last season (21.0 per game).
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s 32.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 20.3.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Marvin Mims Jr., who has earned 3.3% of his team's rush attempts near the goal line this year (96th percentile), finds himself in the unique position (for a wide receiver) of being involved in the Denver Broncos red zone rushing attack.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s 67.8% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a significant regression in his receiving talent over last season's 78.0% rate.
  • With a stellar rate of 0.11 TDs on the ground per game (94th percentile), Marvin Mims Jr. places as one of the leading rushing TD-scorers in the league when it comes to WRs and TEs this year.
  • The Texans pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (58.4%).
  • The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.43 per game this year.

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