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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Denver Broncos vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Marvin Mims Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+385/-465).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -360 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -465.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Broncos.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 134.8 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a colossal 58.5 per game on average).
  • The New York Giants defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.7 per game) this year.
  • The projections expect Marvin Mims Jr. to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the end zone in this week's contest (8.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Broncos are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 10th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 78.0% to 66.9%.
  • With an excellent ratio of 0.14 rushing TDs per game (96th percentile), Marvin Mims Jr. stands among the leading rushing touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to WRs and TEs this year.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest rate in the league versus the New York Giants defense this year (69.8% Adjusted Completion%).

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