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Marvin Mims Jr.

Marvin Mims Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Marvin Mims Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+340/-355).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -365 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -355.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Broncos.
  • The model projects the Broncos to run the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Broncos this year (a massive 59.6 per game on average).
  • The predictive model expects Marvin Mims Jr. to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense near the goal line in this week's contest (9.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
  • After accumulating 21.0 air yards per game last year, Marvin Mims Jr. has posted big gains this year, currently sitting at 52.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Broncos are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Broncos to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (just 28.4 per game) this year.
  • Marvin Mims Jr.'s 66.5% Adjusted Completion% this season shows an impressive drop-off in his receiving prowess over last season's 78.0% figure.
  • With a remarkable ratio of 0.14 rushing TDs per game (96th percentile), Marvin Mims Jr. places as one of the best rushing TD-scorers in the league when it comes to WRs and TEs this year.

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